Once again, a migrant caravan is making its way north from Mexico’s border with Guatemala, thrusting immigration issues into the spotlight. As the Biden administration grapples with the complex task of managing border crossings, the caravan of approximately 6,000 people has captured the nation’s attention, overshadowing other critical matters.
For weeks, bipartisan Senate negotiations sought to link Ukraine aid to permanent border policy changes. However, these discussions fizzled out during the holiday season and are unlikely to regain momentum in January when Congress faces the urgency of keeping the government operational.
Customs and Border Protection (CBP) officials acknowledge that migrant caravans often travel slowly and tend to fragment before reaching the Southwest Border. Nonetheless, CBP remains vigilant, monitoring developments in cooperation with foreign and interagency partners.
The recent caravan’s emergence has cast a shadow over a high-level visit to Mexico led by Secretary of State Antony Blinken, underscoring the ongoing prominence of migration in political discourse.
This resurgence of migrant caravans presents challenges for President Biden, whose two weakest issues heading into the 2024 reelection campaign are his age and border security. It also underscores the deeply politicized nature of migration, where caravan formation often generates negative publicity, even if their tangible impact on border operations is limited.
Caravans consist of loosely connected groups of individuals who travel together through Mexico to reduce their exposure to criminals and corrupt officials. These caravans also serve a political purpose, drawing attention to the organizers’ cause. The latest caravan was labeled an “exodus from poverty” by its organizers, aiming to avoid official repercussions for leaving the southern city of Tapachula without government consent.
However, the logistics of caravans are mostly irrelevant to border officials when it comes to how migrants are processed once they enter the U.S. illegally.
Despite the distraction caused by the “exodus from poverty” caravan, Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador hosted a meeting with Secretary Blinken, Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, and homeland security adviser Liz Sherwood-Randall to address the challenge of mass migration through Mexico.
López Obrador preemptively ruled out a law enforcement crackdown, emphasizing the importance of addressing root causes like poverty to stem migration. While López Obrador advocates for addressing the root causes of migration, Mexican security forces have at times clashed with migrants, and his government played a pivotal role in implementing the Trump administration’s strictest border controls.
Programs requiring the swift return of third-country nationals to Mexico, such as Title 42 or “remain in Mexico,” necessitate Mexico’s cooperation. Unlike Trump, who resorted to tariff threats to secure Mexico’s cooperation, the Biden administration is taking a different approach.
This gives López Obrador more leeway in negotiations with the United States, even as CBP closes vital commercial border crossings due to manpower shortages brought about by managing both migrants and trade.
The potential economic repercussions are unevenly distributed, as Mexico relies more on U.S. commerce than vice versa. Nevertheless, prolonged border closures would adversely affect key U.S. economic sectors, including agriculture and the auto industry. These deep commercial ties force Mexico to engage in negotiations, but López Obrador’s tactics have shifted since dealing with Trump, who viewed the border as his political hallmark.
López Obrador’s public-facing rhetoric now emphasizes addressing root causes over enforcement. He aims to keep his party in power after Mexico’s 2024 presidential election, and he has found a useful public adversary in Republican figures, including those advocating unilateral military action and building walls.
In response to calls for more support, López Obrador asserts that the focus should be on authorizing resources for cooperation and assistance to impoverished countries in Latin America and the Caribbean, rather than imposing barriers and razor wire along the river.
As the Biden administration grapples with the complex and evolving issue of immigration, the resurgence of migrant caravans serves as a reminder of the challenges it faces. While the political debate rages on, the plight of migrants and the need for comprehensive immigration reform remain at the forefront of the national conversation.
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